EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS

Comprehensive data dictionary for the Cars45 dataset:

DATASET OVERVIEW: - Total Records: 2,615 - Source: Cars45.com Nigerian car marketplace - Time Period: Current listings at time of scraping COLUMN DESCRIPTIONS: 1. Price: - Data Type: Float64 - Range: ₦1,470,000 - ₦483,000,000 - Unique Values: 683 - Missing Values: 0 - Description: Car price in Nigerian Naira (₦) 2. Car Name: - Data Type: Object (String) - Unique Values: 440 - Missing Values: 0 - Description: Full car model name - Format: [Brand] [Model] [Additional specs] 3. Region: - Data Type: Object (String) - Unique Values: 13 - Missing Values: 0 - Description: Nigerian state/territory where car is listed - Top Regions: Lagos State (1,397), Abuja FCT (545), Oyo State (185) 4. Condition: - Data Type: Object (String) - Unique Values: 3 - Missing Values: 0 - Distribution: * Local Used: 2,105 entries * Foreign Used: 505 entries * Brand New: 5 entries 5. Mileage: - Data Type: Float64 - Range: 1.0 - 20,700,521.0 kilometers - Unique Values: 2,514 - Missing Values: 54 - Description: Vehicle mileage in kilometers 6. Year: - Data Type: Int64 - Range: 1984 - 2025 - Unique Values: 35 - Missing Values: 0 - Description: Car manufacturing year 7. Color: - Data Type: Object (String) - Unique Values: 17 - Missing Values: 0 - Top Colors: Black (759), Gray (462), Silver (401) 8. Brand: - Data Type: Object (String) - Unique Values: 46 - Missing Values: 0 - Top Brands: Toyota (1,041), Mercedes-Benz (300), Lexus (297) - Description: Car manufacturer name NOTES: - All monetary values are in Nigerian Naira (₦) - Mileage is the only column with missing values (54 records) - The dataset shows strong concentration in Lagos State and Abuja - Toyota dominates the brand distribution with 40% of listings - Local Used cars make up 80% of the listings - Black, Gray, and Silver colors account for 62% of all cars

Key findings from the EDA:

1. Brand Distribution: - Toyota dominates the market with 1,041 cars - Mercedes-Benz, Lexus, and Honda form the next tier with 200-300 cars each - There's a long tail of other brands with fewer representations 2. Price Distribution: - Mean price is ₦13.04M with high standard deviation (₦23.55M) - Median price is ₦7.8M, indicating right-skewed distribution - Price range: ₦1.47M to ₦483M 3. Car Conditions: - Brand New cars have highest average price (₦31.77M) - Foreign Used cars average ₦27.11M - Local Used cars average ₦9.62M 4. Regional Distribution: - Lagos State has highest concentration of listings - Lagos also has highest average prices (₦15.19M) - Abuja follows as second most expensive market 5. Year Distribution: - Most cars are from 2005-2015 - Clear trend of higher prices for newer cars - Newest cars (2022-2024) command highest prices, often exceeding ₦100M

Spatial Analysis

The spatial analysis reveals several key insights:

1. Price Distribution: - Lagos State has both the highest average prices and the largest number of listings - FCT (Abuja) follows as the second most active market - There's significant variation in prices within each region, as shown by the scatter distribution 2. Market Concentration: - Major urban areas (Lagos, Abuja, Rivers State) dominate the market - Some states have very few listings, indicating limited market presence 3. Regional Patterns: - Southern states (particularly Lagos and Rivers) tend to have higher average prices - Northern states generally show lower average prices but also have fewer listings - The price spread (variation) is larger in regions with more listings This visualization helps identify both the geographic concentration of the used car market and the regional price variations across Nigeria.

Correlation Analysis

The correlation analysis reveals several important insights:

1. Price-Mileage Relationship: - There is a weak negative correlation (-0.071) between price and mileage overall - The relationship varies by year, with newer cars showing stronger negative correlations - Some older model years show positive correlations, possibly due to collector value or data anomalies 2. Temporal Patterns: - Clear upward trend in average prices for newer model years - Most consistent price-mileage relationships are found in cars from 2014-2017 - Newer cars (2020+) show more variable correlations, likely due to smaller sample sizes 3. Data Quality: - 54 cars (2.1%) are missing mileage data - The dataset spans from 1984 to 2025 model years - Most robust correlations are found in model years 2003-2015 due to larger sample sizes 4. Price Distribution: - Shows exponential increase in recent years - Larger price variations in newer models - More consistent pricing in older models

Clustering Analysis

Based on the clustering analysis, we can identify four distinct market segments:

1. Premium Mid-Range Segment (Cluster 0): - Average price: ₦21.9M - Newer models (avg. year 2014) - Moderate mileage (156K km) - Dominated by Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, and Lexus - 37% Foreign Used vehicles - Represents 39% of the market 2. Economy Segment (Cluster 1): - Average price: ₦6.1M - Older models (avg. year 2006) - Higher mileage (245K km) - Mainly Toyota and Honda vehicles - Predominantly Local Used (92%) - Largest segment (60% of market) 3. Outlier Segment (Cluster 2): - Single vehicle with extremely high mileage - Can be considered an anomaly 4. Luxury Segment (Cluster 3): - Ultra-premium pricing (avg. ₦447.4M) - Nearly new vehicles (avg. year 2022) - Low mileage (21K km) - Premium brands (Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, Brabus) - Mainly Foreign Used (80%) - Very small segment (5 vehicles) This segmentation reveals a clear three-tier market structure (excluding the outlier), with distinct price points, age profiles, and brand preferences in each segment.

Potential Arbitrage Opportunities Analysis

Based on the analysis, here are the key insights and opportunities for buyers and sellers:

1. Regional Price Variations: - Some car models show price differences of up to 129% between regions - Toyota (2014) has the largest price variation: 129% difference between Oyo State (highest) and Abuja (lowest) - Honda (2009) shows 104% price difference between Rivers State and Lagos State - Premium brands like Mercedes-Benz show variations of 48-70% between regions 2. Condition-Based Opportunities: - Foreign Used cars command significant premiums over Local Used cars - The premium varies drastically by region: * Highest in Abia State (542% premium) * Lowest in Ondo State (24% premium) * Major markets like Lagos (167% premium) and Abuja (210% premium) 3. Market Concentration: - Lagos State has the largest market (1,397 cars) - Abuja follows with 545 cars - Smaller markets might offer better deals due to less competition Recommendations: For Buyers: 1. Consider purchasing from regions with lower prices: - Abuja often offers better prices for Toyota and Honda - Lagos shows better prices for Hyundai models - Check neighboring states for potential savings on specific models 2. Target markets with less competition: - Smaller markets like Ondo State show smaller price premiums - Consider traveling to these markets for better deals For Sellers: 1. Exploit regional price differences: - Consider buying from low-price regions and selling in high-price regions - Focus on models with consistent price differences (Toyota, Honda, Mercedes-Benz) 2. Consider condition-based arbitrage: - Foreign Used cars command highest premiums in Abia State, Enugu State, and Abuja - Target these markets for selling Foreign Used vehicles 3. Market timing: - Lagos and Abuja have the most liquid markets for quick sales - Premium brands might sell better in major markets despite lower margins

Best Regions to Buy Popular Car Brands (Based on Median Prices)

Based on the analysis, here are the best regions to find cheaper cars by brand (considering only regions with significant inventory of 5+ cars)

1. Abuja (FCT) is best for: - Peugeot (₦4.2M) - Hyundai (₦9M) - BMW (₦9.45M) - Kia (₦4.73M) - Mazda (₦4.2M) - Pontiac (₦6.45M) 2. Lagos State offers better deals on: - Acura (₦5.25M) - Volkswagen (₦5.04M) - Infiniti (₦5.15M) - Mitsubishi (₦5.09M) - Dodge (₦10.87M) - Jeep (₦5.78M) - Chevrolet (₦6.3M) 3. Other notable regions: - Rivers State: Best for Honda (₦4.18M) - Abia State: Best for Toyota (₦5M) - Oyo State: Best for Nissan (₦3.41M) and Ford (₦5.48M) - Enugu State: Best for Lexus (₦5.6M) - Akwa Ibom State: Best for Mercedes-Benz (₦3.99M) Key takeaway: Abuja and Lagos dominate as the best regions for most brands, but significant savings can be found in other regions for specific brands. Buyers should particularly note that luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz can be found at better prices in smaller markets like Akwa Ibom State.

Analysis of the best regions to buy popular car models based on median prices.

The analysis shows the best regions to buy specific car models, along with potential savings compared to market averages. Notable findings:

1. Lagos State offers the best prices for many popular models, including: - Honda Pilot (23.46% below market average) - Acura MDX (38.06% below market average) - Toyota 4-Runner (39.66% below market average) 2. Abuja (FCT) shows significant savings for Mercedes-Benz models: - Mercedes-Benz E350 (49.56% below market average) - Mercedes-Benz C300 (26.92% below market average) 3. Some standout deals in other regions: - Toyota RAV4 in Rivers State (47.75% below market average) - Toyota Corolla in Ogun State (23.19% below market average) The largest savings opportunities are found with Mercedes-Benz E350 in Abuja (49.56% below average) and Toyota RAV4 in Rivers State (47.75% below average).

CARS45.COM MARKET ANALYSIS SUMMARY

This comprehensive analysis of Cars45.com's Nigerian market data reveals a mature, segmented market with clear opportunities for both buyers and sellers. The market shows strong regional variation in prices, with significant arbitrage opportunities between regions. Lagos State dominates with over 50% of listings, while Toyota leads brand presence with nearly 40% market share. The data shows three distinct price segments, with foreign-used vehicles commanding significant premiums over local-used ones. The analysis provides actionable insights for market participants, identifying optimal buying locations by brand and highlighting the most liquid market segments for sellers.