# Start writing code here...
import numpy as np
import plotly.figure_factory as ff
import pandas as pd
import datetime
Lunes_1= hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5.5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Lunes_2=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Lunes_3=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Martes_1=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Martes_2=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Martes_3=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Miercoles_1=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Miercoles_2=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=4.5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Miercoles_3=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Jueves_1=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Jueves_2=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=4.5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Jueves_3=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Viernes_1=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Viernes_2=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Viernes_3=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Sabado_1=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Sabado_2=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Sabado_3=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Domingo_1=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Domingo_2=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5.5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
Domingo_3=hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 156)
days= ['Lunes', 'Martes', 'Miercoles', 'Jueves', 'Viernes', 'Sábado', 'Domingo']*156
days = pd.DataFrame(pd.Series(days))
morning = np.vstack((Lunes_1, np.vstack((Martes_1, np.vstack((Miercoles_1, np.vstack((Jueves_1, np.vstack((Viernes_1, np.vstack((Sabado_1, Domingo_1 )) )) )) )) )) )).T.reshape((1092,1))
evening = np.vstack((Lunes_2, np.vstack((Martes_2, np.vstack((Miercoles_2, np.vstack((Jueves_2, np.vstack((Viernes_2, np.vstack((Sabado_2, Domingo_2 )) )) )) )) )) )).T.reshape((1092, 1))
night = np.vstack((Lunes_3, np.vstack((Martes_3, np.vstack((Miercoles_3, np.vstack((Jueves_3, np.vstack((Viernes_3, np.vstack((Sabado_3, Domingo_3 )) )) )) )) )) )).T.reshape((1092, 1))
morning.shape
morning_final = pd.concat((pd.DataFrame(morning), days), axis=1)
evening_final = pd.concat((pd.DataFrame(evening), days), axis=1)
night_final = pd.concat((pd.DataFrame(night), days), axis=1)
date=datetime.date.today()
time_delta = datetime.timedelta(hours=35064)
First_Date=date-time_delta
date_time = [First_Date]
aux_time = First_Date
for i in range(1091):
aux_time = aux_time + datetime.timedelta(hours=24)
date_time.append(aux_time)
hist_data = np.random.lognormal(mean=5, sigma= 0.18, size= 50000)
#hist_data = [x for x in hist_data if x <= 200]
group_labels = ['Martes en la noche', 'Lunes en la Mañana', 'Miercoles por la tarde'] # name of the dataset
fig = ff.create_distplot([Martes_3, Lunes_1, Miercoles_2], group_labels)
fig.update_layout(title_text='Demandas para una semana')
fig.show()
# Using plotly.express
import plotly.express as px
df = pd.concat((pd.DataFrame(morning), pd.DataFrame(evening), pd.DataFrame(night), pd.DataFrame(days), pd.DataFrame(date_time)), axis=1)
df.columns=['Morning', 'Evening', 'Night', 'Weekday', 'Date']
df_aux = df.head(150)
fig = px.line(df_aux, x='Date', y=['Morning', 'Evening', 'Night'])
fig.show()
Aplicando Arima
!pip install statsmodels
Requirement already satisfied: statsmodels in /root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages (0.13.0)
Requirement already satisfied: pandas>=0.25 in /shared-libs/python3.7/py/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from statsmodels) (1.2.5)
Requirement already satisfied: scipy>=1.3 in /shared-libs/python3.7/py/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from statsmodels) (1.7.2)
Requirement already satisfied: numpy>=1.17 in /shared-libs/python3.7/py/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from statsmodels) (1.19.5)
Requirement already satisfied: patsy>=0.5.2 in /root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from statsmodels) (0.5.2)
Requirement already satisfied: python-dateutil>=2.7.3 in /shared-libs/python3.7/py-core/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from pandas>=0.25->statsmodels) (2.8.2)
Requirement already satisfied: pytz>=2017.3 in /shared-libs/python3.7/py/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from pandas>=0.25->statsmodels) (2021.3)
Requirement already satisfied: six in /shared-libs/python3.7/py-core/lib/python3.7/site-packages (from patsy>=0.5.2->statsmodels) (1.16.0)
from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
from math import sqrt
from matplotlib import pyplot
# split into train and test sets
X = df_morning = df[['Date', 'Morning']]
X['Morning'] = pd.to_numeric(df["Morning"], downcast="float")
X['Date']= pd.to_datetime(X['Date'])
print(X)
X.set_index('Date', inplace=True)
print(X)
X=X.values
print(X.shape)
size = int(len(X) * 0.66)
train, test = X[0:size], X[size:len(X)]
history = [x for x in train]
predictions = list()
Date Morning
0 2017-11-12 221.443604
1 2017-11-13 115.106056
2 2017-11-14 125.458374
3 2017-11-15 121.034523
4 2017-11-16 163.441589
... ... ...
1087 2020-11-03 125.867508
1088 2020-11-04 174.073654
1089 2020-11-05 178.289719
1090 2020-11-06 145.939697
1091 2020-11-07 130.296310
[1092 rows x 2 columns]
Morning
Date
2017-11-12 221.443604
2017-11-13 115.106056
2017-11-14 125.458374
2017-11-15 121.034523
2017-11-16 163.441589
... ...
2020-11-03 125.867508
2020-11-04 174.073654
2020-11-05 178.289719
2020-11-06 145.939697
2020-11-07 130.296310
[1092 rows x 1 columns]
(1092, 1)
# walk-forward validation
for t in range(len(test)):
model = ARIMA(history, order=(7,1,7))
model_fit = model.fit()
output = model_fit.forecast()
yhat = output[0]
predictions.append(yhat)
obs = test[t]
history.append(obs)
print('predicted=%f, expected=%f' % (yhat, obs))
print(len(test))
print(t)
# evaluate forecasts
rmse = sqrt(mean_squared_error(test, predictions))
print('Test RMSE: %.3f' % rmse)
# plot forecasts against actual outcomes
pyplot.plot(test)
pyplot.plot(predictions, color='red')
pyplot.show()
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=160.173851, expected=142.227097
372
131
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=148.915075, expected=94.200539
372
132
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=151.092184, expected=115.710922
372
133
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=233.300395, expected=193.292236
372
134
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=164.107352, expected=125.884239
372
135
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=143.760780, expected=129.951782
372
136
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=138.747180, expected=149.882797
372
137
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=155.856722, expected=138.319016
372
138
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=154.900103, expected=165.644913
372
139
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=152.996372, expected=141.536621
372
140
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=227.576114, expected=241.337601
372
141
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=160.707357, expected=123.408981
372
142
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=141.657078, expected=167.343338
372
143
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=150.141749, expected=165.213730
372
144
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=158.399940, expected=144.758438
372
145
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=150.533738, expected=89.330597
372
146
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=152.141179, expected=157.002960
372
147
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=232.435323, expected=305.801849
372
148
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=164.954249, expected=167.366974
372
149
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=148.946747, expected=133.843628
372
150
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=157.893597, expected=174.622955
372
151
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=162.315642, expected=150.673401
372
152
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=149.072365, expected=133.903778
372
153
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=151.401721, expected=140.362808
372
154
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=239.139066, expected=312.032776
372
155
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=157.363722, expected=137.963196
372
156
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=153.046152, expected=148.224213
372
157
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=147.202670, expected=151.639343
372
158
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=155.825382, expected=145.784424
372
159
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=140.753625, expected=144.406586
372
160
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=148.947419, expected=167.007874
372
161
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=244.068521, expected=186.253708
372
162
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=153.802560, expected=156.095642
372
163
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=141.840984, expected=130.341919
372
164
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=154.295326, expected=179.808228
372
165
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=159.975001, expected=136.256348
372
166
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=142.051851, expected=125.815201
372
167
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=146.631236, expected=132.685043
372
168
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=238.766431, expected=163.940048
372
169
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=159.415943, expected=164.660553
372
170
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=141.600712, expected=164.015076
372
171
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=159.356239, expected=133.138885
372
172
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=155.633522, expected=149.881165
372
173
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=144.452138, expected=132.059845
372
174
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=152.285538, expected=129.011139
372
175
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=230.861931, expected=249.774033
372
176
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=159.728446, expected=196.521194
372
177
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=143.109937, expected=127.700645
372
178
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=157.390238, expected=157.467010
372
179
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=157.040555, expected=108.255974
372
180
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=144.269900, expected=116.401962
372
181
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=146.923491, expected=169.291016
372
182
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=233.510168, expected=200.145981
372
183
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=160.778089, expected=114.029053
372
184
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=142.863251, expected=133.559128
372
185
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=157.002389, expected=136.807114
372
186
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=150.010220, expected=121.982430
372
187
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=146.500976, expected=129.930420
372
188
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=156.393002, expected=175.639587
372
189
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=231.565326, expected=260.848206
372
190
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=165.100173, expected=157.290924
372
191
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=141.626653, expected=172.063980
372
192
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=156.863056, expected=134.037552
372
193
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=150.316989, expected=101.485794
372
194
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=144.576770, expected=131.881363
372
195
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=158.522040, expected=123.433479
372
196
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=229.633886, expected=294.088928
372
197
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=159.901028, expected=113.741676
372
198
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=148.299409, expected=133.880203
372
199
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=148.732128, expected=130.135406
372
200
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=150.669341, expected=171.895935
372
201
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=142.934205, expected=160.984375
372
202
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=155.346875, expected=139.249237
372
203
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=237.993772, expected=212.580231
372
204
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=168.306781, expected=160.844986
372
205
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=139.404787, expected=155.423965
372
206
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=147.868911, expected=130.028290
372
207
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=154.846765, expected=156.793320
372
208
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=139.777990, expected=168.265976
372
209
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=152.635700, expected=156.818314
372
210
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=234.256462, expected=198.539352
372
211
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=154.436285, expected=155.742935
372
212
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=148.269790, expected=135.647903
372
213
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=151.515043, expected=227.529694
372
214
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=156.079288, expected=141.973816
372
215
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=144.482862, expected=201.268600
372
216
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=154.663292, expected=162.289551
372
217
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=239.841875, expected=258.739227
372
218
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=156.949886, expected=137.667816
372
219
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=151.639473, expected=185.310898
372
220
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=156.232493, expected=202.799728
372
221
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=147.988143, expected=251.809464
372
272
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=155.102432, expected=171.873810
372
273
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=231.339667, expected=253.849060
372
274
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=150.321157, expected=159.228271
372
275
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=155.394653, expected=186.100525
372
276
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=155.885740, expected=144.069016
372
277
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=151.846741, expected=126.556122
372
278
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=156.623457, expected=117.403915
372
279
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=156.517003, expected=154.999527
372
280
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=234.660779, expected=250.117783
372
281
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=152.008726, expected=150.383224
372
282
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=154.987217, expected=107.938095
372
283
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=159.258923, expected=204.685867
372
284
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=143.171449, expected=177.988358
372
285
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=149.957335, expected=133.064240
372
286
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=154.345039, expected=188.578629
372
287
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=227.572108, expected=336.011047
372
288
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=158.964439, expected=107.073669
372
289
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=147.891376, expected=181.043488
372
290
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=157.305042, expected=131.860077
372
291
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=156.337339, expected=143.504593
372
292
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=147.529735, expected=150.745163
372
293
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=153.365494, expected=128.352844
372
294
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=240.132606, expected=252.174637
372
295
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=146.287814, expected=127.793304
372
296
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=166.197107, expected=173.864883
372
297
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=145.464663, expected=165.160156
372
298
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=156.587249, expected=162.438324
372
299
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=152.758130, expected=139.155182
372
300
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=149.332575, expected=183.870499
372
301
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=246.231981, expected=201.819794
372
302
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
predicted=145.320068, expected=145.436050
372
303
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=156.057155, expected=187.120621
372
304
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=147.289330, expected=162.992157
372
305
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=160.106742, expected=187.459641
372
306
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=137.615126, expected=137.790329
372
307
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=159.645545, expected=161.402786
372
308
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=226.570604, expected=215.274094
372
309
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=147.553927, expected=157.095932
372
310
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=156.200379, expected=196.320419
372
311
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=142.562175, expected=189.023178
372
312
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=154.250576, expected=189.420258
372
313
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=126.492192, expected=123.998482
372
314
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=166.258537, expected=125.046959
372
315
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=233.345310, expected=200.836304
372
316
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=148.541129, expected=115.794830
372
317
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=152.764839, expected=161.001846
372
318
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=148.860436, expected=102.663605
372
319
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=163.750817, expected=185.760666
372
320
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=137.497811, expected=167.491257
372
321
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=165.877874, expected=188.899948
372
322
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=235.298758, expected=404.195587
372
323
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=138.335073, expected=133.416779
372
324
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=177.952389, expected=118.722542
372
325
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=139.760775, expected=157.136383
372
326
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=155.115685, expected=170.218765
372
327
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=144.318836, expected=129.559692
372
328
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=151.378696, expected=209.027161
372
329
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=245.502242, expected=243.257980
372
330
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=148.178716, expected=185.717484
372
331
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=158.569436, expected=172.927689
372
332
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=148.903359, expected=117.739464
372
333
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=168.258278, expected=184.751877
372
334
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=128.312631, expected=122.214577
372
335
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=166.313922, expected=230.273926
372
336
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=234.233021, expected=186.384628
372
337
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=154.607377, expected=136.543488
372
338
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=151.616582, expected=152.378372
372
339
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=144.145936, expected=133.949768
372
340
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=172.193702, expected=168.864456
372
341
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=125.035136, expected=133.714981
372
342
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=176.020390, expected=162.923828
372
343
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=223.168942, expected=207.600998
372
344
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=156.618576, expected=190.227219
372
345
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=147.572911, expected=133.838211
372
346
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=148.827830, expected=134.895767
372
347
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=164.271426, expected=123.535057
372
348
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=128.870547, expected=89.279388
372
349
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=168.839581, expected=132.146973
372
350
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=218.419383, expected=189.519302
372
351
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=157.642292, expected=144.845428
372
352
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=144.814382, expected=153.230377
372
353
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=152.614116, expected=164.529938
372
354
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=164.844603, expected=134.290604
372
355
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=132.063384, expected=159.125168
372
356
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=168.585158, expected=119.270721
372
357
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:966: UserWarning:
Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=227.570250, expected=288.836151
372
358
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=155.821107, expected=159.206314
372
359
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=155.500679, expected=182.790817
372
360
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=154.936480, expected=141.716827
372
361
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=157.447147, expected=145.599060
372
362
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=141.236156, expected=113.482719
372
363
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=160.598889, expected=146.852036
372
364
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=233.070533, expected=234.539764
372
365
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=156.499623, expected=163.566895
372
366
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=157.899272, expected=125.867508
372
367
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=153.065942, expected=174.073654
372
368
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=155.294703, expected=178.289719
372
369
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=141.152613, expected=145.939697
372
370
/root/venv/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:606: ConvergenceWarning:
Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals
predicted=157.588152, expected=130.296310
372
371
Test RMSE: 31.471
rmse = sqrt(mean_squared_error(test, predictions))
print('Test RMSE: %.3f' % rmse)
# plot forecasts against actual outcomes
pyplot.plot(test)
pyplot.plot(predictions, color='red')
pyplot.show()
Test RMSE: 31.471
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
from math import sqrt
rmse = sqrt(mean_squared_error(test, predictions))
print('Test RMSE: %.3f' % rmse)
# plot forecasts against actual outcomes
pyplot.plot(test)
pyplot.plot(predictions, color='red')
pyplot.show()
Execution Error
NameError: name 'test' is not defined
Test RMSE: 31.471
import statsmodels.api as sm
import itertools
p = d = q = range(0, 2)
pdq = list(itertools.product(p, d, q))
seasonal_pdq = [(x[0], x[1], x[2], 12) for x in list(itertools.product(p, d, q))]
print('Examples of parameter combinations for Seasonal ARIMA...')
print('SARIMAX: {} x {}'.format(pdq[1], seasonal_pdq[1]))
print('SARIMAX: {} x {}'.format(pdq[1], seasonal_pdq[2]))
print('SARIMAX: {} x {}'.format(pdq[2], seasonal_pdq[3]))
print('SARIMAX: {} x {}'.format(pdq[2], seasonal_pdq[4]))
Examples of parameter combinations for Seasonal ARIMA...
SARIMAX: (0, 0, 1) x (0, 0, 1, 12)
SARIMAX: (0, 0, 1) x (0, 1, 0, 12)
SARIMAX: (0, 1, 0) x (0, 1, 1, 12)
SARIMAX: (0, 1, 0) x (1, 0, 0, 12)
Examples of parameter combinations for Seasonal ARIMA...
SARIMAX: (0, 0, 1) x (0, 0, 1, 12)
SARIMAX: (0, 0, 1) x (0, 1, 0, 12)
SARIMAX: (0, 1, 0) x (0, 1, 1, 12)
SARIMAX: (0, 1, 0) x (1, 0, 0, 12)