IPCC climate report

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has long been at the forefront of assessing the impacts of climate change and guiding global policy. Their latest report, AR6 WGIII: Climate Change 2022 – Mitigation of Climate Change, is a comprehensive document spanning over 3,000 pages, aimed at detailing the necessary steps to mitigate the impending impacts of climate change. For the layperson, digesting such an extensive and technical report can be daunting. However, through accessible data, we can glean some of the critical insights without wading through the entire document.

The current climate situation

The foundation of the WGIII report builds on previous assessments that highlight the stark reality of our current climate trajectory. For instance, the Earth's temperature has increased by approximately 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, a change largely attributed to human activities, specifically the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) like carbon dioxide and methane. These emissions have been steadily rising since the 1970s, pushing the planet towards a warmer and less stable future.

What does warming mean for the future?

The IPCC report makes it clear: further warming will lead to increasingly severe consequences. For example, even a half-degree increase can significantly elevate the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and droughts. The IPCC strongly advises keeping global warming below 1.5°C to avoid the worst impacts, with 2°C being a threshold for far more catastrophic outcomes.

Modeling the future: scenarios and pathways

A critical component of the IPCC report is its use of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to project various future scenarios based on different levels of GHG emissions and policy actions. The report examines 1,389 scenarios to illustrate possible futures ranging from the best-case scenarios (C1) to the worst (C8). To simplify the analysis, the IPCC presents seven "illustrative pathways" that outline potential strategies for mitigating climate change:

Current policies (CurPol): if countries stick to their existing policies without further action, the world is likely to warm significantly beyond safe limits.

Moderate action (ModAct): assumes that current commitments are upheld, leading to slightly better but still insufficient outcomes.

Gradual strengthening (GS): involves stronger global cooperation post-2030 to achieve rapid decarbonization.

Net negative emissions (Neg): focuses on achieving net-negative emissions by the end of the century, using techniques like carbon capture.

Renewables (Ren): emphasizes a shift towards renewable energy sources to phase out fossil fuels.

Low demand (LD): reduces overall energy consumption, lowering the pressure on carbon-intensive energy sources.

Shifting pathways (SG): prioritizes sustainable development goals alongside greenhouse gas reduction.

The Importance of carbon removal and renewable energy

The scenarios underscore the necessity of carbon removal technologies and the transition to renewable energy. For instance, the "Net Negative Emissions" pathway shows how rapidly deploying carbon capture methods can not only halt but reverse warming trends. Similarly, the "Renewables" pathway highlights the benefits of reducing reliance on fossil fuels by investing in renewable energy, demonstrating that this could lead to significant emissions reductions even as global energy demands grow.

The IPCC's latest report is both a warning and a roadmap. While current policies and moderate actions are insufficient to avert severe climate impacts, the report outlines pathways that could lead to a more sustainable and habitable future. By making this data publicly accessible, the IPCC empowers individuals and policymakers alike to engage with the science of climate change and take informed action. For those interested in delving deeper, the IPCC provides a wealth of data and resources, enabling further exp