What is a confidence interval?
A confidence interval is a range of values constructed from sample data that is likely to contain the true population parameter at a chosen confidence level. A 95% confidence interval, for example, means that if you repeated the sampling process many times, about 95% of the intervals constructed would contain the true value.
It is one of the core tools in inferential statistics because it communicates both the estimate and the uncertainty around it, rather than reporting a single point that implies more precision than the data actually supports. Reporting a point estimate without an interval is common but misleading in most research and analytical contexts.
Confidence interval formula
For a population mean (z-interval): CI = x̄ ± z × (σ / √n)
For a proportion: CI = p̂ ± z × √(p̂(1 − p̂) / n)
Where x̄ is the sample mean, σ is the population standard deviation (replaced by s, the sample standard deviation, when the population σ is unknown), n is the sample size, p̂ is the observed sample proportion, and z is the critical value corresponding to the chosen confidence level (1.96 for 95%, 2.576 for 99%). When the population standard deviation is unknown and the sample is small, the t-distribution replaces z, with degrees of freedom equal to n − 1.